Society for
Epidemiologic Research (SER) Presidential Addresses
Wilcox
Dispenses Encouragement and Advice in SER Presidential Address
Slightly
Tongue-in-Cheek Presentation Delights the Audience
Taking a lighter tone than
previous incumbents, outgoing SER president Allen Wilcox
dispensed encouragement and friendly advice to his colleagues at the
recent Chicago meeting. Speaking on the opening morning of the three
day event, Wilcox began by pointing out some encouraging facts about
the current state of epidemiology.
Recalling the “mugging” which
epidemiology received at the hands of Gary Taubes in
Science a couple of years ago, Wilcox described a Science article on
“Spontaneous Positron Emissions” in June of this year by the same
journalist which documented fumbles by physicists. Wilcox encouraged
epidemiologists not to apologize for being involved in observational
studies with all of their pitfalls. Comparing epidemiologists to
physicists, Wilcox noted that the only difference may be that
physicists tend to fumble in obscurity while epidemiologists make
their mistakes in public.
Wilcox saw another positive
trend in epidemiologic activity as documented by a rise in
epidemiology papers identifiable with a search strategy that uses
epidemiology as keyword. In 1965, approximately 3% of the papers in
Medline included the term epidemiology whereas that number had climbed
to approximately 6.5% in 1995. Epidemiology has not become a
“dominant” science according to Wilcox, but there is evidence of its
growing influence.
In the advice category, Wilcox
had 5 offerings.
1. Buy log paper. Because
epidemiologists think in ratios, they should display their odds ratios
on log paper, especially if they are the type which needs to see the
picture before they get the point.
2. Find collaborators who are
smarter than you are. For most of us, according to Wilcox, this is not
a problem. But smart collaborators make you look better. Choose them
carefully and treat them well, he advised, because these
collaborations are like professional marriages. And they may well last
longer than real marriages, given the length of a typical
epidemiologic study.
3. Avoid using slide formats
available in the new statistical/graphics packages. [Ed. You have all
seen the awful, mismatching colors!]
4. Make sure your staff members
know they are building a cathedral.
Wilcox pointed out that every
study, as every cathedral, needs stone masons to do some of the more
tedious work. However, the skills of the persons doing the more
tedious work can make or break your study. To ensure the morale of the
staff, Wilcox advised helping them to understand how what they are
doing is contributing to a larger purpose.
5. Do not expect to retire
early. This final piece of advice was dispensed by noting that
epidemiologists can do their best work well into their 70’s and 80’s.
He cited the example of Richard Doll who is still
publishing important papers at age 85. If fortunate, some
epidemiologists will look back at that age and realize they may
actually have built a cathedral!
Published July 1998
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